Nigeria’s GDP Outpaces Population Growth, Signals Early Poverty Reduction – Quartus Economics

43Nigeria’s economy is showing early signs of a turnaround, with output now growing faster than population growth – a development that could herald the beginning of sustained poverty reduction if it continues.

That is the key message from a new report from Quartus Economics highlighting a sharp rebound in the country’s economic performance in 2025 after a difficult 2024.

The economic research firm said Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollar terms grew from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, representing 21.98 percent growth. At the same time, despite continued population growth, on a per-person basis GDP increased 19.5 percent from $1,083 to $1,295.

Nominal GDP increased in naira terms from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

The report is based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and exchange rate figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and comparative data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GROWTH FINALLY EXCEEDING POPULATION

One of the key highlights of the findings is that Nigeria’s economic growth is now outpacing its demographic expansion – a reversal of a long-standing trend that has historically undermined improvements in living standards.

Advertisement Nigeria’s population grew 2.1 percent in 2025, adding an estimated 4.8 million people. Yet, with GDP rising by almost 22 percent in dollar terms, average economic output per person still increased substantially.

“For years, Nigeria has struggled to grow its economy faster than its population,” the report noted. “That pattern has now been reversed, opening the door to meaningful reductions in poverty.”

From 2020 to 2023 the economy grew by less than 1 percent in total, while the population grew by more than 10 percent. By contrast, between 2024 and 2025, economic output grew by more than 8 per cent against population growth of about 4.25 percent.

STRONGER MONEY, MORE OUTPUT

The report credits the better performance to a mix of higher production and modest currency gains. Nigeria’s nominal GDP grew by 18.43 percent from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

Meanwhile, the naira gained about 3 per cent on average from N1,479 per dollar in 2024 to N1,436 in 2025. This double impact helped to raise the country’s GDP, expressed in US dollars, a major point of reference for world-wide comparisons.

Economists say currency stability is especially important for household welfare because it helps preserve real incomes and asset values.

BEATING THE REGIONAL PEERS

Nigeria’s growth also compares well with many other economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the region recorded an average GDP growth of 10.33 percent in dollar terms and 7.66 percent in per capita terms, Nigeria’s figures were much higher.

Ghana was the only major African economy that registered better improvement, with a GDP growth of 37.7 percent. In terms of both overall and per capita growth, Nigeria outstripped countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya and Morocco.

The trend is not limited to the continent. The report said Nigeria’s GDP grew faster than that of some other emerging markets such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico.

IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY MITIGATION

Though the report warns poverty levels are still high, it identifies “modest but clear signs of progress” thanks to three main factors: currency stability, increasing economic output and a better alignment between population and GDP growth.

“Prosperity is not a matter of fiat,” the think tank said, noting that sustained gains require keeping macroeconomic stability and continued expansion in productive sectors.

Currency stability was identified as a crucial driver. In previous years, sharp devaluations had eroded incomes and worsened poverty. The report said the recent stability of the naira is a more conducive environment for wealth creation and better living standards.

‘OPTIMISTIC PRUDENT’

Despite the positive trajectory, Quartus Economics stressed that Nigeria’s per capita income is below historical highs and trails several peer economies. However, the trend is a promising one.

“There is substantial evidence that Nigeria’s economic fortune is once again on the rise,” the report concluded. “This time the lift can sustain, and must sustain.”

Analysts say the coming years will be a test of whether the country can consolidate those gains and translate improvements in the macroeconomy into tangible reductions in poverty among its fast-growing population.