Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, the vice-presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election, has offered a detailed reflection on the dynamics of Nigeria’s 2023 general election, expressing doubt over whether northern political forces will unite behind key opposition figures ahead of future polls.
Commenting on the changing opposition realignments, Ahmed said he deliberately avoids mentioning individual names in political discussions at this stage, but insisted that the regional alignment remains a critical factor in determining the electoral outcome.
The North is highly unlikely to rally around OK. “This is my personal opinion,” he said, stressing that he maintains respect and cordial relations with all the major political actors involved.
He spoke about a personal encounter with ex-presidential candidate, Peter Obi in January 2024 at a gathering in John Wilson Hotel where he was said to have counseled him on extensive political strategy.
“There are important figures like Kwankwaso and El-Rufai. I told him at the time. I told him he should get to know them,” he said.
He also said he had been advocating long-term strategising, saying politicians needed to look beyond the next election.
“If you can’t plan for 2027 in 2024, then I can’t stay with you,” he said.
He said current alignments, including new cooperation between opposition figures, may have grown out of previous strategic conversations, but he was not sure whether such arrangements would work in practice.
He also voiced concern over the shifting alliances in Nigerian politics, querying why certain politicians did not back particular candidates in previous electoral cycles but are now aligning differently.
“What happened in 2022 and 2023?” he asked, alluding to some erraticism in political alliances.
He cited the changing demographics of Nigeria, with an increasing desire for a new breed of leadership but cautioned that internal contradictions within political tickets could dash such aspirations.
“You are looking for new blood, a new generation, but you may have a vice-presidential figure who is older in age, education, political profile and experience,” he said.
“Regional influence and political dominance also are important in the leadership balance in any proposed ticket,” he added.
Referring to Kwankwaso, he said, “His local government is almost his state, his state is almost his region. And this is a guy with a lot of ambition and a lot of temper, and he’s going to actually be president?” he said.
He said the opposition can theoretically work together, but the voting patterns and internal party dynamics over time make these alliances difficult to maintain.
He said the coherence of party structure and political strategy will remain important as opposition figures continue to re-position in the run-up to future elections.
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