There are mixed views among voters and supporters across northern Nigeria on how the region might vote in the 2027 presidential election if former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and former Kano Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remain on different political platforms.
The discussion is coming on the heels of increasing talks of a possible alliance between Peter Obi and Kwankwaso on one hand and Atiku who is expected to pursue his presidential ambition separately with a yet to be identified running mate.
Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, an ADC chieftain, commenting on the emerging political permutations, said northern voters may be divided due to the different alliances and political interests ahead of the election.
According to him, Kwankwaso’s political influence remains the strongest in Kano State, unlike Atiku, whose support base stretches across several northern states.
“Based on what I have seen, Kwankwaso’s support is in Kano. “You can see that he only made it in Kano in the previous election, Atiku is everywhere,” he said.
He said some northern voters are not comfortable with Obi’s involvement due to perceptions around the 2023 election campaign.
“The issue is that the North does not want Obi on the ballot because of the religious card he played the other time. That will also affect the strength of Kwankwaso in 2027,” he stated.
Wada also said many northerners are against the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC and would want to support a northern candidate in the next election.
“The North is unanimously agreed on the APC and will certainly vote for a Northerner on the ballot. “He’s a running mate this time around and that has discouraged many of his supporters,” he added.
Kano Obidient Coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, on the other hand, feels the northern vote may be different this time around as proposed alliances are being made.
“The northern vote will likely split, but not like that of the 2023, because Kwankwaso is running with Peter Obi as presidential candidate from the South,” he told.
“The voting pattern could be affected by things such as the strength of a candidate in a particular region, the choice of running mates and which candidate voters think has the best chance of beating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, he said.
He said the pattern will depend on three things: home-base strength, running mates and whether voters rally around the candidate they believe has the best chance of beating Tinubu.
Muhammad also cited the broader coalition being discussed among opposition figures and parties.
“2023 election, Kwankwaso contested as presidential candidate in NNPP, which is a different party from the party Atiku contested under and got lower votes, but this coming election (2027 election), Kwankwaso will run with Peter Obi together with a massive alliance from different parties such as LP, SDP, APGA, and even those departing from APC to NDC,” he said.
“Some northern voters now see Atiku’s politics as personal ambition and not part of a larger opposition strategy,” he said.
He alleged that “Northerners now know that Atiku is running for himself, not for Nigerians because Obi and Kwankwaso requested that he should join NDC so that they can merge and beat Tinubu and he denied.
He further predicted that a Kwankwaso/Obi alliance could perform strongly in Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, and other North-West states, while Obi’s influence may also boost support in the North-East and North-Central regions.
He said the merger of Obi and Kwankwaso will help massively in getting more votes in Nigeria than any other part because of their loyalty and dedication to citizens,” he added.
However, one Mamman Buhari, an activist in Kano, believes neither Atiku nor Kwankwaso would come out victorious.
“Support for Obi has exposed Kwankwaso as selfish,” he said. Obi and Kwankwaso do not respect each other’s political consciousness, but selfishness has brought them together.
“Leave Atiku alone; he has been contesting for a very long time.
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