IMF Projects Nigeria’s GDP at $334bn in 2026, Making It Africa’s Third-Largest Economy
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP is expected to reach $334 billion in 2026, overtaking Algeria as Africa’s third-largest economy.
According to the fund’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025), Nigeria ranked fourth in Africa in 2025, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, with a GDP of roughly $285 billion at current prices.
The IMF attributed Nigeria’s projected economic growth to higher oil production, improved foreign exchange (FX) liquidity, and the results of ongoing economic reforms, such as the elimination of fuel subsidies, liberalization of exchange rates, and fiscal adjustments, all of which are intended to support medium-term growth despite short-term inflationary pressures.
Nigeria’s GDP is expected to increase to over $334 billion this year, surpassing Algeria’s predicted output of $284 billion.
According to IMF forecasts, the review year will see a change, with Nigeria’s economy predicted to maintain its resilience and have a promising growth outlook.
With a predicted GDP of $443 billion in 2026, South Africa is predicted to continue to be the continent’s largest economy, followed by Egypt at $399 billion.
With a GDP of $426 billion in 2025, South Africa continued to be the continent’s largest economy. Egypt came in second with $349 billion, and Algeria came in third with roughly $288 billion.
Due to currency devaluations, rebasing efforts, and more general macroeconomic issues impacting major African economies, Nigeria’s economic standing has changed recently.
The IMF increased the country’s 2026 GDP growth estimate from 4.2% to 4.4% earlier this year.
Additionally, the World Bank increased its growth estimate for Nigeria from 3.7% in mid-2025 to 4.4% in 2026.
Nigeria was ranked as the sixth-highest contributor and among the top 10 worldwide last week when the IMF predicted that the country would contribute 1.5% to global real GDP growth in 2026.
The improvement also put the nation ahead of a number of developed and growing countries, such as Saudi Arabia (1.7%), Vietnam (1.6%), Brazil (1.5%), and Germany (0.9%).
With 26.6 percent, China is predicted to continue to be the biggest contributor to global growth, followed by India 17.0 percent, the United States 9.9 percent, Indonesia 3.8 percent, and Turkey 2.2%.
It is anticipated that China and India will provide 43.6% of the world’s economic growth this year.
The IMF report also alluded to the Asia Pacific region’s supremacy, which was predicted to contribute close to 50% of global economic growth, indicating the region’s ongoing economic momentum.
Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, responded to the IMF study by saying, “The balance of power is changing.”
Nigeria’s genuine growth forecast, despite the present difficulties, is still estimated to be between 3 and 4 percent.
Energy, services, telecoms, and trade all expanded as a result of the nation’s consumption-driven boom.
The county’s exceptional resilience in the face of persistent domestic and international economic issues, as well as its role as a major growth generator among emerging economies, were also reflected in the ranking.
The IMF report demonstrated how China and India were becoming major contributors to the expansion of the world economy.
Together, the Eurozone contributes 2% to global growth. While emerging markets are expected to grow by 4.2%, advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.8% overall.
