Nigeria’s economy is in a double-barreled catastrophe as Brent crude prices fall to $59.25 a barrel, much below the $75 target for the 2025 budget. Posters of Nigerian political art F
This new development has the potential to destabilize the country’s exchange rate stability and income expectations.
Nairametrics calculates that Nigeria might lose up to N19.6 trillion in expected oil revenue if crude production lags at just 1.67 million barrels per day (compared to the budgeted 2.06 million) and the naira weakens past N1,600/$.
A startling N30.79 trillion could be the budget deficit’s eventual growth from N13 trillion. Nigerian prints of political art
Prolonged low oil prices, according to analysts, may lead to fresh pressure on the foreign exchange market, making it more difficult for the Central Bank to protect the naira.
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If the decline in oil receipts continues, the recent gains in net foreign exchange inflow ($15.2 billion in Q1) might not last.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading OPEC+ in its plan to reintroduce 2.2 million barrels per day by October, which could further reduce prices. Nigeria, which struggles with oil theft and deteriorating infrastructure, is excluded from cartel profits.
A high-level EMT subcommittee is already working on updated fiscal models, with particular emphasis on increasing oil production, digitizing revenue collection, and expanding the tax base, according to Finance Minister Wale Edun.
