Good morning!! Here is today’s summary from Nigerian Newspapers;

1. The Defence Headquarters, DHQ has announced the successful rescue of Mrs Amina Abubakar, wife of the late Maj.-Gen Abubakar Rabe (Rtd.), former Director of Defence Information, after a fierce encounter between troops and bandits. The Director of Defence Information, Maj.-Gen Samaila Uba said in a statement issued on Monday that the rescue was carried out during intensified search and rescue operations.

2. The Federal Government recommenced the mass prosecution of terrorism suspects before a Federal High Court in Abuja after an earlier exercise in which about 500 were prosecuted. The exercise, which started on Monday is expected to last till Thursday, was said to involve about 600 persons going out on trial, Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi said.

3. The Federation Account Allocation Committee, FAAC has shared a total of N2.257 trillion as the revenue generated in April among the Federal Government, the 36 states and the 774 local government areas across the country. The revenue allocation was approved by FAAC at its May meeting in Abuja.

4. Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC in Kano State, has picked Mustapha Rabiu Kwankwaso, biological son of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his running mate. The young Kwankwaso is the immediate former Commissioner for Youths and Sports.

5. The Federal High Court in Abuja on Monday ordered the deregistration of African Democratic Congress and four others for failing to meet the constitutional requirements for political parties in the country. In a judgement, Justice Peter Lifu ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission to deregistered the affected parties having failed to secure 25 per cent of the votes in the last general elections in compliance with the provisions of the law.

6. The African Democratic Congress has picked former Rivers State Governor and ex-Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi as running mate to former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar for the 2027 presidential election. The party said Amaechi’s emergence was sequel to extensive consultations and reflected his performance as runner-up in the ADC presidential primaries as well as his record in public service.

7. The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) has been slashed by N75 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The refinery said in a circular to fuel marketers on Monday that the adjustment was due to the de-escalation of the tension in the Middle East which had affected energy prices in the past three months.

8. Joseph Okpe, a 43-year-old commercial bus driver, has died after he was reportedly beaten by a group of officers of the Nigerian Air Force over a disagreement regarding a minor traffic incident involving their vehicle. The incident, it was learnt on Monday, took place on May 9 along the Oshodi-Apapa Expressway, where the officers allegedly assaulted the deceased.

9. The Anambra State Police Command arrested two suspects allegedly involved in the production and distribution of adulterated alcoholic beverages in the state. The suspects, Ikechukwu Okeke, 42 and Okeke Chukwuemeka, 38, were arrested on Monday morning by the operatives attached to the Rapid Response Squad/VCRU, based on credible intelligence received by the police.

10. The Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, has condemned the judgment of the Federal High Court in Abuja on Monday which deregistered five political parties, describing it as an abuse of court process and a direct violation of a subsisting order of the Court of Appeal. This was disclosed in a statement issued in Osogbo on Monday by the governor’s spokesperson, Olawale Rasheed.410

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The Ekiti state government has approved the release of N55.6 million grants to 177 entrepreneurs picked from across the state under the Innovation Enterprise Support Fund (IESF) to accelerate the local innovation ecosystem and promote enterprise growth.

The state commissioner for innovation, science and digital economy, Oluwaseun Fakuade, made this disclosure in a statement issued on Sunday, June 14.

She explained that the fund was established under the administration of governor Biodun Oyebanji, which has attracted 746 applications from entrepreneurs and innovators across the 16 local government areas of the state after a competitive screening process and bootcamp. She added that 177 applicants have emerged as beneficiaries.

“The start of the disbursement was a big step in the state’s effort to grow a vibrant innovation economy,” he said.

This is a promise fulfilled. This is what that commitment means in practice when his excellency, governor Oyebanji directed us to build an innovation ecosystem that reaches every part of Ekiti State. We owe it to the seven hundred and forty-six Ekiti entrepreneurs who put their ideas in our hands to deliver a serious, transparent and consequential programme. This disbursement is proof that we are backing that trust with action.

“The fund was being delivered in partnership with First Bank of Nigeria (FBN) in the first disbursement cycle, whose collaboration is critical to the design and implementation of the initiative,” said Fakuade.

The statement said grants were given in three categories, depending on the stage of development of each venture. Many of the recipients received proof-of-concept funding, while a smaller number received pre-seed funding.

Tier 1 beneficiaries received between N750,000 and N2 million each, Tier 2 recipients were awarded between N350,000 and N750,000 while Tier 3 grantees received up to N350,000.

Women-led enterprises were represented across all three tiers of funding, reflecting the programme’s objective of creating an inclusive innovation ecosystem, it added.

The government also said it received applications from eight sectors of innovation with the largest share going to agriculture, followed by technology and manufacturing.

On the sectoral spread, Fakuade said the initiative was intentionally designed to support entrepreneurs across different segments of the economy.

“This fund wasn’t designed for a particular type of entrepreneur. Ekiti’s economy is diversified and the ideas of our people are diverse. An agritech innovator in Irepodun. A software developer in Ado-Ekiti. Both deserve a credible pathway to scale. That’s what the IESF is building,” he said.

The commissioner also attributed the success of the rollout of the programme to Oyebanji’s commitment to innovation and entrepreneurship.

“Governor Oyebanji has always known that an innovation economy is built on deliberate policy and sustained commitment and not on geography or inheritance. The IESF became possible because of his decision to put the full weight of this administration behind the ideas of the people of Ekiti and the entrepreneurs starting this journey are the direct expression of that leadership,” he added.

Commenting also, Adebayo Yacoub, business manager, public sector directorate, First Bank of Nigeria (FBN) said the partnership was a testimony to the bank’s commitment to enterprise development and sustainable economic growth.

“FirstBank is committed to initiatives like the IESF that enhance enterprise development and promote sustainable economic growth. We are proud to support platforms that foster innovation, enhance cross-sector collaboration and unlock opportunities for the next generation of business leaders. “This partnership is a testament to our continued commitment to building a resilient and inclusive economy,” he said.

The IESF is an initiative of the Government of Ekiti State supported by FBN to accelerate the growth of tech-enabled businesses and startups in the State.

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On the occasion of Nigeria’s 27 years of uninterrupted democratic governance, the Nigerian Government has reiterated its commitment to deepening democracy, strengthening institutions and promoting national cohesion.

This was disclosed at a Democracy Day Public Lecture in Abuja, where stakeholders and policy experts reflected on the country’s democratic journey, achievements, challenges and future prospects.

Senator George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), who represented Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima, said the occasion gave Nigerians an opportunity to celebrate democratic gains while critically examining the nation’s progress since the return to civil rule in 1999.

He said Nigeria’s democratic journey has been a story of resilience and determination in the face of many challenges.

“Nigeria has decisively returned to democratic governance since 29 May 1999. “The most important thing I’ve learned from this journey is that it’s been a journey of resilience and determination,” he said.

The country had successfully conducted eight successive general elections and witnessed peaceful transfers of power across political parties and regions, he said describing the development as evidence of the growing maturity of Nigeria’s democracy.

“The gains of democracy, the freedom of choice to vote and be voted for, are priceless. He noted that we must continue to strengthen our institutions and ensure that democracy brings benefits to all Nigerians.

The SGF also stressed the need for national unity and cautioned against ethnic, religious and regional divisions.

The foundations of our democracy should not be eroded by ethnic religious or regional fault lines. “National cohesion is vital to our survival and development as a democracy.”

Professor Ayo Omotayo, the Director-General of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), who delivered the keynote lecture, titled ‘Twenty-Seven Years of Democratic Governance in Nigeria: Achievements, Challenges and the Road Ahead’, described June 12 as a watershed moment in the country’s democratic history. As we pay tribute to the heroes of the June 12 struggle, particularly the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola and other pro-democracy activists who sacrificed for the restoration of democratic governance.

“Democracy Day is more than a holiday. It’s a sober reminder of the sacrifices made by brave Nigerians who believed that the destiny of this nation should be decided through the ballot box, not the gun,” Omotayo said.

Some of the achievements listed by the Director-General of NIPSS since 1999 include, stronger democratic institutions, broader civic engagement, economic reforms, technological progress and increased global acknowledgement for Nigeria.

For him, one of the biggest landmarks was the peaceful change of power between political parties at the federal level in 2015.

He emphasized that “the transfer of power from one political party to another is still one of the strongest indicators of the growing maturity of our democratic system.”

Professor Omotayo also praised the growth of Nigeria’s digital economy, stating that technology had become a key driver of innovation, entrepreneurship and financial inclusion.

One of the great accomplishments of democratic governance is the rise of the digital economy. “Young Nigerians are using technology more and more to establish businesses, create jobs and spur innovation,” the NIPSS Director-General said.

Despite these advances, insecurity, unemployment, poverty, corruption and social divisions were key challenges facing the country’s democratic development, he said.

“Democracy must ultimately be judged not just by the conduct of elections, but by its capacity to improve the welfare and well-being of citizens. “There is much work to be done in this regard,” he pointed out.

Professor Omotayo also called for more investment in youth development, education, technology, institutional reforms and inclusive economic growth so that democracy would translate into better living standards for the citizens.

Speaking at the event, Mrs. Didi Esther Walson-Jack, Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, also emphasized the importance of trust in democratic governance.

Democracy, she said, was a system based on accountability, inclusion, service delivery and citizen participation.

“Democracy is far more than elections. It is about service, accountability, inclusion, justice, participation and the continuous improvement of the lives of citizens,” she said.

For that, public institutions have to work hard to earn the trust of citizens through transparency, fairness and effective service delivery, Walson-Jack said.

“When government earns trust by being fair, transparent, consistent and delivering results, democracy becomes stronger and more meaningful,” she said.

She re-echoed the commitment of the Federal Civil Service towards national development through innovation, digital transformation, performance management and ethical leadership.

The event had in attendance Nigeria’s Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammad Idris and his counterparts, Minister of Livestock, Minister of Budget and National Planning, alongside Permanent Secretaries and Director Generals of MDAs.

The stakeholders at the event stressed that there has been a lot of progress but building a more prosperous, secure and inclusive nation remains an ongoing responsibility for leaders and citizens alike.

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Hundreds of protesters staged a fresh #EndBadGovernance protest in Lagos on Friday, capitalizing on the Democracy Day period to make a case for immediate government intervention in the areas of economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment and the escalating cost of living.

The protest attracted activists, civil society organisations and concerned Nigerians who marched peacefully through parts of the city, holding placards with inscriptions such as “Free All Captives Now,” “End Anti-People Policies Now,” and “For a Living Wage and Mass Creation of Employment.”

Participants expressed concern over the worsening economic situation in the country and called on the government to take decisive steps to address the challenges faced by citizens.

The protest was held against the backdrop of recent mass abductions reported in Oyo and Borno States and rising public frustration over rising cost of living and economic hardship.

The protesters also pointed out the impact of inflation, rising transportation fares and declining purchasing power on the average Nigerians, calling for policies that will reduce the burden on the people.

Prominent human rights lawyer and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, has joined calls for improved governance, enhanced security and economic reforms aimed at improving the welfare of citizens.

Earlier, Falana had joined some civil society groups to announce June 12 as a day of nationwide protests, citing issues of pervasive insecurity, hunger and the economic challenges facing millions of Nigerians.

Security agencies were also deployed to monitor the protest and maintain law and order during the exercise.

Meanwhile, a group of demonstrators also showed up at the venue to support the Federal Government’s economic and policy reforms.

Pro-government supporters marched with banners carrying messages such as “Better Days Ahead for Nigeria”, asking Nigerians to be patient and allow the reforms to produce positive results.

The group said the policies the government is putting in place are aimed at repositioning the economy for long-term recovery, stability and sustainable growth.

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“Nigeria was using 90% of revenue to service debt in 2023. Today the budget is tripled and debt to revenue ratio is down. That’s not Leprosy. “That’s recovery.

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said “borrowing is not leprosy”, he was not telling Nigerians to celebrate debt. He was asking them to consider context. For the past two years, the headlines have been about one number: ₦65.9 trillion borrowed. Anger is the one emotion social media has zeroed in on. What’s missing is the math from 2023 to 2026 – and the math tells a different story.

Loud Backlash. The Balance Sheet Says More

The backlash has been fierce, as you would expect. Daily Times Nigeria quoted Tinubu in a headline defending borrowing “if used productively and responsibly”. Critics hit back with charts showing Nigeria’s debt in 2 years outpacing the last 55 years. Nigerians flooded the World Bank’s Instagram page with comments like “Stop giving Tinubu more loans,” forcing the bank to lock comments on the page.

And Nigerians are right to be tired Debt is now a national trauma. But trauma is a poor economist. To know if we are sicker or healing we have to begin a comparative analysis, define what we’re talking about, and set the context.

The Company Nigeria What Tinubu inherited

“You don’t measure a new CEO by the size of the loan. You judge him by the company he kept.”
The Tinubu administration inherited a ₦11 trillion budget deficit in 2023. The plan was to spend N11 trillion more than it expected to earn. At the time, Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio was roughly 65%. It got worse after real term estimates for Q1. At one point we were literally using 90% of all government revenue just to pay interest on debt.

It is getting dark. The last administration had taken money for future crude supplies in advance so we could pay for consumption. Imagine taking over a company with current and future earnings that can’t possibly support proposed spending, yet you still have to spend to keep the lights on.

“If you’re not growing your revenue base, you’re going to have to borrow more money to survive.” Both were chosen by the Tinubu administration.

Three Reforms That Changed Math

Three structural decisions altered Nigeria’s fiscal base between 2023 and the present:

Subsidy cancellation
Economically unavoidable. Politically toxic. The fuel subsidy was debt in another guise, we borrowed to consume, not to build.
FX Unification
The massive devaluation of Naira was caused by the merging of the parallel market and CBN rate. It also killed the arbitrage racket which used to siphon billions of dollars from the treasury every year.
Reduced Cost of Credit
Interest rates on foreign loans have moved from double digit to single digit in Nigeria. That’s like refinancing a mortgage from 18 to 8 percent. You still owe. But the bleeding begins to slow.
The outcome: Nigeria’s 2026 budget is nearly three times the size of its 2023 budget, with projected revenue soaring exponentially.

The Problem: We Still Have a Gap

“Once the budget was approved, the deficit was accepted. “Pretending that borrowing is a surprise is ignoring simple arithmetic.”
And just like the CEO, whenever there is a deficit the government has two choices: raise revenues via taxation or by increasing business output; or borrow. I’m a fan of cutting spending myself. But you can’t run a country while cut your way out of a ₦11 trillion hole.

So the decision to borrow was not taken yesterday. It was done the moment the budget passed and the deficit was accepted.

Three Indicators of Fiscal Space

Why is Tinubu so confident? The “leprosy” comment is based on three quantifiable changes since 2023:

Debt to Revenue Ratio Is Down
The debt-to-revenue ratio has actually gone down, the fact that the budget has tripled. We are spending less of every naira we earn on debt service than we did at the peak of the crisis. In 2023, debt service took up 90% of revenue. There is room to fund capital projects now.
Investor Panic Is Subsiding
When buying Nigeria’s bonds, investors are less worried about our debt exposure. Eurobond yields have fallen. Market-wise, it’s a vote of confidence. Risk flows with money. When yields fall, it means the world thinks you’re less likely to default.
Dollar Debt Has In Fact Reduced
Nigeria has not defaulted on its sovereign debt. In fact, total debt in USD has actually come down from $108 billion in 2023 to $90-$95 billion now. The sharp rise in debt as measured in naira terms partly reflects devaluation, which raised the naira value of existing external debt even without new borrowing.
So, Does Nigeria Have a Debt Problem?

“So not leprosy, but not full either.”
Yes. And no. Nigeria is no longer working in the same fiscal environment that it was at the peak of its revenue crisis. In nominal terms, the revenue is better and the government has more fiscal space than when debt obligations consumed almost everything coming in.

But the country remains heavily dependent on borrowing. Inflation is still high. The naira is still weak. How long the debt remains sustainable will in the end hinge on whether revenues can continue to grow faster than obligations.

If revenues hold steady or borrowed money is wasted, Nigeria could easily revert to the same fiscal stress that characterized the years before 2023. But as long as they grow and as long as this administration does well with revenue, we will be fine.

The Tinubu Doctrine: Borrow to Transition, Not Consume

This is the heart of the administration’s PR case. Under Buhari, subsidies and FX distortions were debt financed. We borrowed to spend. Under Tinubu, debt is driving a move away from that model.

The strategy is built on three pillars:

Cheaper Money: The switch to single-digit foreign loan rates reduces the life cost of debt. That matters more than the headline borrowing number.
Revenue First: Removing subsidies, unifying FX and tax reforms are to broaden the base so that today’s loans do not become tomorrow’s crisis.
Transparency: The deficit was declared by the budget. Nigerians may dislike the borrowing. But they cannot deny it was concealed.
What Nigerians Need to Watch Next

“The real PR victory is not taking Twitter. That’s when debt service is no longer 90% of the story, and growth writes the next chapter.”
If this strategy is successful, three indicators will confirm it in 24 months:

Debt Service-to-Revenue Below 40%: Permanent exit from the 90% trap means cash for schools, roads and power.
FX Stability: The first step was to unify. Step two: Reserves and inflows. A stable naira is the best sign that reforms are working.
Debt-Funded Assets: Borrowing needs to be visible in rail, power, digital infrastructure and agriculture — projects that pay for themselves.
We’re not there yet. Inflation is biting. The naira is fragile. But the vital signs are good: less dollar debt, cheaper credit, and a budget that tripled without a debt spiral.

Conclusion: ICU to Recovery

Nigeria was on fiscal ICU in 2023. Debt service accounted for 90% of revenues. Sold forward crude. Subsidies were a bleeding sore. The Tinubu administration chose painful surgery: end subsidies, unify FX, borrow cheaper to fund transition.

The patient is breathing, but the patient is not dancing. The debt-to-revenue ratio has decreased. The dollar is less bound. Investors are less skittish.

Nigeria is not complete. But it is not leprous A country that can scale up its budget by three times, reduce its USD debt and borrow at single-digit rates has options.

The next 18 months will tell whether this breathing room translates into a full recovery. For the moment, the data confirms what the President said: borrowing is not a disease. When the underlying disease was 90% debt service, the real cure was fiscal space. And that space is finally opening up.

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Many households may still be struggling, but by the time President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks three years in office on June 12, 2026, investors may have reason to celebrate.

The administration’s bold reforms, from scrapping fuel subsidies to liberalizing the foreign-exchange market, have reshaped Nigeria’s economic landscape, revived investor interest and boosted government finances.
But the same policies have driven up inflation, squeezed incomes and exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis that continues to test public patience.

The result is an economy stuck between improving market fundamentals and persistent social strain.

But the government says it inherited an economy distorted by subsidies, multiple exchange rates, dwindling fiscal revenues and declining investor confidence.

But the question for companies and investors is whether the economic pain so far is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth, or just postponing deeper structural challenges.

The gamble of reform

Few presidents have moved so quickly on reform as Tinubu in his early weeks in office.

His declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone” brought an end to a policy that had lasted decades and had grown to be one of the biggest drains on public finances. This was followed by foreign exchange reforms that effectively dismantled the country’s multiple exchange rate system, allowing the naira to trade more freely.

The administration said both policies were needed to correct long-standing distortions, discouraging investment and encouraging arbitrage.

For years, the government had been spending trillions of naira yearly on subsidizing petrol consumption. The subsidy regime sucked up resources which could have been used for infrastructure, healthcare and education. Likewise, the multiple exchange rate system provided opportunities for rent seeking, while it also dissuaded foreign investors who had difficulties to access foreign currency.

The administration hoped to remove these distortions and thereby restore market confidence and encourage a more efficient allocation of resources throughout the economy.

The reforms rapidly garnered the backing of multilateral institutions and international investors. Nigeria began to reappear on the radar of portfolio investors who largely stayed away from the country during years of foreign exchange restrictions and capital controls.

But the reforms also unleashed powerful inflationary pressures that rippled through the economy.

Cost of living crisis and inflation

If there is any one index that best captures the public mood after three years of Tinubu’s presidency, it is inflation.

The cost of transportation saw a steep rise after the removal of fuel subsidies. The depreciation of the naira has also seen a significant rise in the cost of imported goods and industrial inputs. Together, these developments have pushed up consumer prices and reduced household purchasing power.

Food inflation has been particularly severe, reflecting insecurity in agricultural regions, logistical challenges and weakness in the currency. Soaring prices of staple foods have become for many Nigerians the most visible outcome of economic reforms.

The effect has been a sharp decline in real earnings. Salaries in the public and private sector have found it difficult to keep up with increasing prices. This has led to households curtailing discretionary expenditure and changing consumption patterns.

Demand has slowed for retail businesses, consumer goods manufacturers and service providers with consumers prioritising their expenditure on essentials.

In response, the government has introduced targeted interventions such as cash-transfer programmes, wage adjustments and support measures for vulnerable groups. But the extent of inflation has frequently surpassed those efforts.

Growth is back, but unevenly

Despite inflationary headwinds, Nigeria’s economy has managed to grow.

According to the recently published Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s real GDP grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1 2026, lower than 4.07 per cent y/y in Q4 2025.

Growth has been driven by improvements in services, telecommunications, financial services and parts of the oil sector. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, banking, fintech, digital services and technology related industries have shown resilience.

The services sector has gradually become the engine of growth reflecting structural changes in the Nigerian economy. The growing demand for digital services has helped financial technology firms, digital payment platforms and telecommunications operators.

Higher oil output and measures to curb crude theft, meanwhile, have also helped support government revenues and foreign exchange earnings to some extent.

But the expansion is lopsided. Last week, Daily Sun reported that MoneyAfrica said the growth rate in Nigeria is still not enough for the development needs of the country. The firm says growth of around 4 per cent is not enough to generate the level of employment and income gains needed to boost household welfare after years of inflation, naira depreciation and economic adjustment.

The firm said Nigeria would need sustained double-digit economic growth to meaningfully restore consumer purchasing power and deliver broad-based improvements in living standards.

Manufacturing companies continue to face significant pressures from high energy costs, currency fluctuations and high borrowing costs. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which employ large shares, have struggled to absorb rising operating costs.

One of Nigeria’s biggest employers in the past, agriculture is still hampered by insecurity, climate disruptions and inadequate infrastructure.

So economic growth has not resulted in general improvements in living standards. Population growth continues to outpace economic growth, restricting gains in per capita income. For many analysts, this is still one of the biggest challenges for the administration: turning macroeconomic stabilisation into inclusive growth.

The challenge for policymakers is to trade off short-term pain against long-term payoffs. Price pressures remain one of the biggest risks to the economic recovery, although inflation has eased somewhat from its peaks.

Public finances and fiscal consolidation

One of the most visible accomplishments of the Tinubu administration has been the improvement in fiscal revenues.

The removal of fuel subsidies greatly eased fiscal pressures and released resources that had been absorbed by recurrent expenditures. The currency depreciation has also boosted government receipts through higher naira-denominated oil revenues.

Reforms in tax administration have focused on expansion of the revenue base and reduction of leakages. The administration has made fiscal discipline a cornerstone of its economic platform, and its officials have argued that healthy public finances are a prerequisite for sustained growth.

These have increased fiscal flexibility and alleviated some of the immediate pressure on government borrowing.

Nigeria still faces substantial debt service obligations. The debt stock of Nigeria rose to N159.28 trillion as at the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the Debt Management Office (DMO) has said. The rising debt load was due to a consistent accumulation of debt amid persistent fiscal deficits and weak revenue performance.

A significant portion of government revenues is still being used to service existing debt, limiting the fiscal space for capital investments.

Furthermore, federal revenues are a key source of revenue for state governments, highlighting the importance of broad structural reforms to improve subnational fiscal sustainability.

Revenue mobilisation could be strengthened further if the administration’s proposed tax reforms are fully implemented.

But they also encounter political pushback from stakeholders concerned about the effects on businesses and consumers.
The liberalization of Nigeria’s foreign currency market is arguably the reform that investors have been watching the most.

Prior to the revisions, there was a significant difference between the official and parallel market currency rates, and firms sometimes had difficulty obtaining dollars. Exchange-rate restrictions were often mentioned by foreign investors as a significant barrier to investment.

Some of these distortions have decreased with the shift to a more market-driven exchange-rate system. Higher yields and increased foreign exchange pricing clarity have drawn international portfolio investors back to Nigeria’s debt markets over time. Periods of improvement in external reserves have been bolstered by capital inflows and confidence-boosting policy initiatives.

The reforms have allayed some worries about foreign currency availability and earnings repatriation for multinational firms doing business in Nigeria.

Exchange-rate volatility is still a problem, though. Since the start of the reforms, the naira has significantly depreciated, raising import prices and posing challenges for companies with foreign-currency obligations.

Over the past three years, exchange-rate losses have emerged as a key component of financial performance for numerous businesses.

The administration contends that moving toward a more sustainable market-based system will inevitably result in short-term volatility. Although trust is still dependent on consistent policy implementation, investors largely agree with this viewpoint.

Banking industry: An exceptionally profitable period

The banking industry is one that has benefited early from Tinubu’s reforms.

Over the past three years, Nigeria’s top banks have posted record profits, primarily due to increased transaction volumes, higher interest rates, and benefits from foreign exchange revaluation.

Institutions with foreign-currency assets saw significant benefits as a result of the naira’s dramatic decline. Concurrently, the industry’s interest income increased due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s vigorous monetary tightening cycle.

As more people and organizations rely on electronic payments, banks have also profited from rising quantities of digital transactions.

Major lenders’ market positions have been improved and investor confidence has been bolstered by the sector’s resiliency. Despite difficult macroeconomic conditions, companies including Zenith Bank Plc, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and United Bank for Africa Plc have achieved strong earnings growth.

The increased profitability of the industry has usually been welcomed by shareholders, and foreign investors are increasingly considering Nigerian banks to be among the most appealing sectors of the nation’s capital market.

However, there are still concerns hidden beyond the headline figures.

Recapitalization: Getting ready for a larger economy

The apex bank’s decision to launch a fresh banking recapitalization program has been a significant move under Tinubu’s leadership.

The strategy acknowledges that Nigeria’s economy needs bigger, more robust financial institutions that can sustain future expansion, even in the face of present difficulties.

Timelines for raising more money through rights issues, private placements, and public offers have been provided to banks.

It is anticipated that the recapitalization process will increase the sector’s ability to fund major corporate deals, industrial expansion, and infrastructure projects.

The program is both a test and an opportunity for investors. Better capital buffers and increased competition could lead to the emergence of stronger banks. However, mergers and acquisitions may put institutions under pressure to consolidate if they are unable to raise enough money.

Over the next few years, the process is probably going to change Nigeria’s banking environment, possibly resulting in fewer but bigger institutions.

Risks to asset quality and financial strains

Nigerian banks are nevertheless vulnerable to macroeconomic threats notwithstanding their high profitability.

Borrowers in a number of sectors are under more strain due to high inflation, high interest rates, and volatile foreign exchange.

Manufacturers, companies that rely on imports, and smaller firms still struggle with liquidity. Concerns over loan repayment capabilities have increased due to rising finance prices.

Analysts continue to keep an eye on industries that are especially susceptible to economic hardship, even if non-performing loan levels are still generally acceptable at the industry level.

Despite increases in output, the oil and gas industry, which has historically been a major source of risk for the banking sector, is nonetheless tightly monitored.

As inflation continues to put pressure on household incomes, consumer lending also faces difficulties. In the upcoming years, banks will need to strike a crucial balance between increasing lending and preserving asset quality.

The evolving role of the CBN

Under Tinubu, the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy has also changed as the top bank has adopted a more conventional framework of policies centered on market confidence, exchange-rate stability, and inflation control.

In an effort to control inflation and stabilize expectations, interest rates have increased dramatically. The approach has boosted monetary credibility and drawn in foreign investment, but it has also raised borrowing costs for households and businesses. However, the MPC decided to maintain rates and other parameters at its most recent meeting.

At the same time, the central bank has worked to bolster regulation, increase transparency, and rebuild trust in the financial system.

These actions signify a significant move toward policy predictability for investors. Higher lending rates, meanwhile, have put further operational strain on enterprises.

Whether inflation slows down enough to permit progressive easing without jeopardizing financial stability will ultimately determine how effective monetary policy is.

The path ahead

Nigeria’s economy is at a turning point three years into Tinubu’s presidency.

The administration has made significant strides in correcting fundamental distortions that have built up over many years. Foreign currency market reforms have progressed, investor confidence has grown, fiscal revenues have increased, and the banking industry is still lucrative and well-capitalized.

However, there has been a substantial societal cost associated with these advantages. Households continue to be severely impacted by inflation, poverty rates are still high, and businesses are functioning in one of the most difficult circumstances in recent memory. Large portions of the populace have not yet fully benefited from reform.

The outlook for the banking industry is still cautiously optimistic. Nigerian banks could be positioned for long-term success through recapitalization, digital innovation, and enhanced regulatory monitoring. Global uncertainty, economic fragility, and asset-quality risks, however, nonetheless call for caution.

In conclusion

The final assessment of Tinubu’s economic plan may depend less on whether the reforms were required and more on whether they can raise living standards in a noticeable way before the public loses patience.

After three years, the administration has mostly been successful in shifting the course of economic policy. Demonstrating that stabilization can lead to prosperity is the next issue.

The narrative is becoming more and more one of opportunity for investors. For many Nigerians, however, the question of whether the sacrifices required by reform would ultimately result in a more accessible, productive, and inclusive economy is still easier to answer.

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Nigeria has received several funding offers from investors and institutional lenders, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has said.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Mr Oyedele said the current market environment presents an opportunity for the country to refinance some of its existing debt while mobilising additional resources for development.

“We think that the timing is good for us to be able to maybe even refinance some of our expensive past debts, but to also raise more funding for our development at this critical time,” he added.

Asked whether Nigeria would go for a Eurobond issue or other commercial sources of finance, the minister said any decision would depend on market conditions, the size of funding required and the speed with which the government wants to access the funds.

Now the country had several options for financing, he said.

“We have many offers, there is a lot of interest in Nigeria from investors, which is good for us,” Mr. Oyedele said.

He said Nigeria also was talking to institutional lenders, such as the African Finance Corporation (AFC), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Afreximbank, as well as financing arrangements with other countries.

He said, “We have a lot of options.”

The government, he said, would be weighing the cost, risks and appropriateness of available funding sources before arriving at the most appropriate financing strategy.

“The aim is to use resources efficiently in support of the country’s development priorities,” he said.

“We want to get the best results from every dollar or every naira we spend,” he said.

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The Presidency on Tuesday defended Nigeria’s borrowing profile, insisting that the country has not accumulated debt at the level of nations like Egypt, South Africa and Senegal.

This was said by presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, in a post on X, in response to concerns over Nigeria’s rising debt profile under the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

Nigeria is still creditworthy and capable of getting more loans to fund infrastructure projects across the country, Onanuga said.

“Nigeria has not overborrowed compared to countries like Egypt, South Africa and West African country of Senegal. Nigeria is credit worthy and can still borrow more to fund infrastructure.

“The irrational panic about loans is a symptom of economic and financial illiteracy,” he wrote.

His remarks came after an X user @Akinwumi posted that Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio is still lower than Egypt and South Africa.

Loans for infrastructure, electricity, transport, Internet expansion, railway modernization, port reforms, agriculture and energy projects should be seen as long-term investments that can drive economic growth and national development, the user said.

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Results reveal pressure is now building on banks to better utilize their profits before the next earnings season, following two years of chasing new funds, navigating tough regulations and pitching to investors.

With the recapitalisation exercise led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) now over, banks have raised a total of N4.65 trillion to meet new capital requirements. This has left the sector stronger and with more financial capacity, but the focus is now on how well the money will be deployed to create real growth.
But it has also altered expectations as the urgency for banks to survive has eased. But there is a sharper question coming from shareholders who paid for the expansion. Now they are demanding proof that larger banks can turn their larger capital bases into stronger and more consistent earnings and not just compliance comfort.

33 banks met the new regulatory threshold, the apex bank said. Heritage Bank was the only major casualty after it failed to improve its financial condition despite regulatory intervention, it was gathered.

Shareholders are about to smile home with N27 trillion, a huge jump from N21.97 trillion in 2024. But they are worried that investors cannot eat announcements.

A retail investor, Chika Mbah, who participated in the rights issues of Fidelity Bank and Access Holdings, said: “The capital raise was needed but investors can’t survive on announcements forever. People want to see stronger dividends, steady earnings and share-price appreciation even in the next earning season.”

The recapitalisation exercise changed the size of Nigerian banks fundamentally. These larger shareholder funds will permit banks to take on bigger transactions in infrastructure, energy, manufacturing and regional trade finance.

Under the existing prudential guidelines, banks can lend up to 20 per cent of shareholders’ funds to a single borrower. Analysts say the expanded capital base now puts leading lenders in a position to anchor billion naira infrastructure transactions that were previously out of reach.

They also warn that raising capital and putting it to profitable use are two very different challenges. Managing Director, Optimus by Afrinvest, Ayodeji Ebo, explaining the development, said the sector has moved from a solvency story to an execution story. “Banks that can deploy capital efficiently into quality assets will do well. “Those that just sit on excess liquidity may find pressure on return on equity in the next few years,” Ebo said.

The expiry of CBN’s regulatory forbearance in 2025 forced lenders to acknowledge impaired loans that had been temporarily protected, particularly in the oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, higher interest rates have increased repayment pressure on corporate borrowers.

Several banks already pointed to weaker 2025 earnings due to higher provisioning costs, while others remained resilient in profitability.

Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Holding Company continued to be among the best performers, maintaining trillion-naira profit levels and paying record dividends to shareholders.

Wema Bank also attracted investors’ attention after posting triple digit profit growth, driven by loan growth and digital banking activity.

Other lenders face more complicated transitions.

United Bank for Africa’s earnings were affected by big impairment charges related to the expiry of forbearance rules. Investors were cautious of the pending merger between Unity Bank and Providus Bank, until it became clear how integration risks would be managed.

For many retail shareholders, dividends continue to be the key test of whether the recapitalisation exercise was of value.

At the 35th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Zenith Bank Plc, Bisi Bakare, National Coordinator, Pragmatic Shareholders Association of Nigeria, expressed satisfaction with the Bank’s performance and confidence in future returns.

“As shareholders of Zenith Bank Plc, we are very happy because what we are after every year is return on our investments, and today we are getting N10 dividend and I believe by year end 2026, they are going to pay more, she said.

“They were the banks that people thought would emerge stronger,” said another shareholder, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He then said that shareholders are watching closely now. “Investors expect consistent returns and better corporate governance if banks raise this level of capital,” he said.

The NGX Banking Index is also up at +57.68 per cent, drawing investor interest so far, but market analysts say the sector is no longer one uniform story.

Instead, the next phase will probably diverge between banks with a strong capacity to deploy capital, diversified income streams and disciplined risk management, and those still struggling to translate bigger balance sheets into sustainable profitability.

For investors, the recapitalisation might have answered the immediate question of banking stability.

The larger question now is which banks can turn new capital into sustainable shareholder returns.

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President Bola Tinubu has declared that no one is a citizen unless he or she pays taxes to the constituted authority.

This was said by Tinubu on Friday at the Africa CEO Forum holding in Rwanda.

“Nobody wants to pay tax generally but wants to enjoy the infrastructural facility built by the government,” he said.

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Taxation is not the friend of the rich, the middle class or the poor. Everyone wants development. But they don’t answer the question of how the government is going to pay for it.

“Every human being expects development but the question they don’t answer is, how do you pay for it? You want a really good highway, but you don’t want it through your land.” How do you grow up?

“Everybody wants a good hospital, a well-equipped hospital, and they don’t want to pay for taxes. How do you look after the vulnerable, and how do you ensure the future of the children? What is research and development even like in the pharmaceutical industry?

“We remember COVID-19, we remember what happened to the world in general. And so in a world where you cannot predict what exactly you need to do, you have to think about where the source and application of funds should be engineered so that tax is a priority.”

A taxpayer is a citizen, whether corporate or individual. “You are not a citizen if you are not a taxpayer and you are not exempted,” Tinubu said.

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