What is happening in Edo South right now is more than just a political fight; it is a test of leadership before the All Progressives Congress primaries in May 2026. It will show if Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State can rise above outside pressures and make decisions that are clear and strategic. This will show if it’s possible to keep old promises without hurting the present. Iyobosa Uwugiaren looks at the problems as they come up.
Edo politics is getting rocky again. Behind the party statements, planned silences, and public fights, there is a deeper, more important question: who really controls the politics of Edo South?
What is happening within the APC in Edo State is not just another round of disagreements between party members; it is a high-stakes battle for memory, power, and survival.
Osagie Ize-Iyamu is at the center. His political journey has been marked by patience, resilience, reinvention, and staying relevant. Opposite him are voices of resistance, like former Governor Adams Oshiomhole and Jarret Tenebe. Their opposition is both strategic and symbolic. And Governor Monday Okpebholo is in the middle of it all, caught in a web of conflicting loyalties and future goals. And don’t get it twisted: this is no longer about a ticket to the Senate. This is for 2028.
History has a way of coming back at hard times in politics, and Edo State is a place where political memory is long and not forgiving. Not too long ago, Okpebholo was at a dangerous crossroads. His dream of becoming governor of Edo State was anything but easy. He faced strong political opponents and entrenched interests, led by Oshiomhole, who were not entirely convinced or willing to give up ground.
When alliances were weak and the results were unclear, it was Ize-Iyamu who stepped up. Not with words, but with the tools of politics. Not with vague endorsements, but with structures that have been tested, put to use, and deeply rooted in Edo South. His involvement was not just a gesture; it was planned. And it worked. That help made the scales tip. It made the governor’s difficult path into a contest he could win, both in the primary and the general election.
That’s why the resistance to Ize-Iyamu’s plans that is happening today is more important than a normal political disagreement. It poses a fundamental inquiry: can a framework that previously secured triumph for the APC in Edo State, particularly for the governor, be disregarded without repercussions?
Edo South is not just another district for senators. It is the most important, complicated, and largest electoral bloc in Edo politics. It’s not just that this place affects who wins the governorship; it decides who wins. The district is a place where people have different identities, loyalties, historical ties, and political gatekeepers. If you don’t understand Edo South, you don’t understand Edo State.
Ize-Iyamu is more than just a participant in this area. He is a part of the system. His political networks, which he has built up over years of working with people, go beyond party lines and election cycles. They are part of communities, strengthened by loyalty, and used when it matters most.
That’s why the current pushback against his goal of becoming a senator is not without risk. It’s not just about stopping a candidate; it’s about facing a system. And in Nigerian politics, things don’t just go away. They do something.
The resistance itself is very telling. When people like Oshiomhole and Tenebe get involved, it’s not just a disagreement; it’s a sign of respect. In politics, silence follows insignificance. Relevance draws opposition. The strong pushback against Ize-Iyamu is, in a way, proof that he still has political power and weight.
But things are not as simple as they seem. Okpebholo’s job isn’t just to pick a side; it’s also to deal with the results. He might think that openly supporting Ize-Iyamu could make other power groups in the APC angry. But going against Ize-Iyamu could hurt the very base that helped him win in the first place.
It’s a tricky balancing act that needs more than just political instinct. It requires discipline, planning ahead, and a very good sense of timing.
It gets even more complicated because Ize-Iyamu’s camp is carefully spreading the word that his candidacy is inevitable, and it is. He is making himself not only a candidate but also the obvious choice for Edo South by holding consultations, getting strategic endorsements, and staying involved with the grassroots.
Some of his critics might say that the perception isn’t shared by everyone. But in politics, how people see things makes them real. It changes alliances, gives things momentum, and makes people who aren’t sure what to do pick a side. It makes people want to join in, which can be hard to stop.
In the last few days, things have happened that show Ize-Iyamu is a moving train. And for those who don’t want to follow him, this makes them feel rushed. It puts pressure on the governor. The real test for Okpebholo is not whether he can stop a political contest; that is not convincing or wise. The question is whether he can handle it without letting it fall apart.
Edo politics has seen this movie before: fights within parties turn into factional crises, parallel party structures form, defections weaken electoral strength, and in the end, losses that could have been avoided.
These fears are not just ideas. They are experiences that have shaped the state’s political consciousness. The lesson is very clear for a governor who wants to run for re-election: a party that is split cannot win an election that is united.
This is when political memory becomes both a burden and a guide. Ize-Iyamu’s past support is not just a footnote in history; it is still a factor in current decisions. In Nigerian politics, loyalty isn’t always permanent, but it’s not often forgotten, especially when it leads to power.
Ignoring that truth is not a good idea; it is dangerous. But just because you admit it doesn’t mean you have to give in to it. The job of the governor is more complicated. It’s about making a system where competition can happen without hurting anyone, where ambition can be controlled without causing anger, and where results don’t leave lasting scars. That means getting involved, not avoiding it.
It means knowing how much power Ize-Iyamu has without letting it get in the way of the party’s bigger goals. It means making sure that other important people feel heard and valued, even when a powerful person is in charge. It takes more than just a large coalition to make it work. Because isolated victories won’t win 2028. It will be won by unity.
Ize-Iyamu himself is still at the center of this equation. He is a politician whose importance has not waned despite changing alliances and strong opposition. His strength is not a coincidence; it comes from being involved all the time, being able to adapt to new situations, and having a deep understanding of Edo’s political landscape.
It is not easy to break up his networks. It’s hard to ignore his power. And maybe most importantly, his story isn’t one of decline; it’s one of persistence. So, the fact that outsiders are currently against him doesn’t make him any less strong. If anything, it makes his goal even more important. It turns his candidacy into a vote on who has power, loyalty, and control over Edo South.
The effects are very important for Governor Okpebholo. He can’t afford to sit on the sidelines for this contest. The outcome, whether it’s about picking candidates, keeping the party together, or how voters feel, will have a direct effect on his own political future.
If you don’t handle it right, the effects could go far beyond a seat in the Senate. If you handle it well, it could strengthen the base for a successful re-election campaign in 2028.
In the end, what’s going on in Edo South is more than just a political fight. It is a test of what it means to be a leader. It will show if the governor can rise above outside pressures from groups and make decisions that are clear and strategic. It will show if it is possible to keep old promises without hurting current situations. It will also find out if the APC in Edo State can deal with its own problems without losing support in the elections.
One thing is for sure, though: Edo South will not be neutral in 2028. It will choose, shape, and ultimately determine the outcome. And in that important place, Osagie Ize-Iyamu is still a force that can’t be ignored.
If you don’t pay attention to him, you could be in trouble.
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