The Peoples Democratic Party, or PDP, has continued to lose ground as Nigeria’s main opposition party. After losing to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015, the party has suffered ever since, losing some of its states to the ruling party.
Segun Sowunmi, former campaign spokesman for the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and former governorship candidate in Ogun State, says the PDP might not have lost the 2023 presidential election if Atiku and the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, had been the flag bearers. He also considers an Atiku-Peter Obi or Atiku-Wike ticket in 2023. Excerpts:
Peter Obi was seen with Atiku a few days ago; is he returning to the PDP, and what are his chances of becoming the party’s flag bearer?
Anyone wishing to run for president in Nigeria must first pass through party primaries, followed by the general election.
Party primaries have different cultures for different parties, but in the PDP, which I have been a member of since its formation, we do not believe that people should not engage in primaries; anyone who wants our ticket must participate in primaries.
Yes, your argument can be very persuasive, and we can rally people around to persuade others for you. We could be persuaded that yes, we have a Southeasterner, especially now that we are hearing that the South should do eight years; there is a bet there for the PDP in the South, and no one in the South-south can tell us that we have not given him the ticket.
We gave Jonathan, who completed Yar’Adua’s tenure in 2007 and received his own free ticket in 2011, and we gave Obasanjo a ticket in 1999 and he received a second term in 2007, so as far as the presidency is concerned, we have never given the Southeast ticket, and the Southeastern part of Nigeria cannot be cheerleaders for other zones in the PDP, but if they leave it open and everyone is free to come and compete for it, may the best man prevail.
Opposition parties must be more pragmatic in determining where they may get support. That is my position. If anyone says, ‘o you got to be contesting, and every political party has a rule that a serving governor and president have the right of first refusal except if they are not going,’ so you now have a Yoruba man in President Bola Tinubu as the potential presidential candidate of the APC, and you will be saying you can come to a Yoruba man’s land to beat him, that’s an exotic calculation, and I may be mistaken.
In terms of electoral spread, which of Atiku-Obi, Atiku-Wike, or Atiku Saraki best positions the PDP to dethrone Tinubu in 2027?
You raise an excellent question; if we had been prudent and supported the Atiku-Wike ticket in the 2023 election, we could have been quite fortunate. You understand that a theory that has not been tested remains a hypothesis.
In terms of Atiku-Obi, we tried it in 2019 and know what happened; some like to argue that if you mix the numbers Peter received in the previous election with the numbers Atiku received, you can have the desired outcome. I put too much effort into this election-related analysis to believe that kind of jargon; some of those numbers are mutually exclusive; there are people who will get up for Peter Obi but not for anyone else; there are people who will get up for Atiku but not for Peter; and, of course, there are people who will get up for both of them; how large will that number be? I don’t know.
I usually tell them that each election is a new beginning. You sew a clothing for me, and if you are wise, you should re-measure the individual every four years to ensure that the garment is suited for purpose. If you believe it’s just a combination and you’re holding your breath until the next election, where everything will be exactly as it was in the previous election, you’ll be in the misery of a lazy person who does not want to deal with the hard work of listening to the electorates to find out where they stand.
The dynamics and concerns may differ significantly. If Tinubu is having problems, which I am not saying, he may be looking at the North, where they may have some very serious issues over the votes they contributed the last time, even from his APC, and most likely how they are handled. I doubt you can find that level of hostility in the South anymore, let alone the Southeast. When you go to the Southeast now, you will be fooling yourself to say that you don’t understand that they had more space than they ever had before, and you will be deceiving yourself by saying that they don’t have a bigger political gladiators, and it will be foolish and foolhardy to think that if they take a position that the South wants to do eight years, it will be foolish and foolhardy to think that if it becomes a game between a North and Southern man, the South will not go with their Sou
Read Also: Dino Melaye Tops List Of Nigeria’s Most Popular Politicians On Instagram
These are simulations and assumptions, but I’m just saying that anyone who wants to run for office in 2027 should be busy doing polls, benchmarking, deep diving, and going around the country listening to where the people are. Social media isn’t the best way to assess people because we haven’t seen a commensurate vote on the ground, which you can measure during the off seasons.
The Atiku-Saraki ticket…
The truth about the Atiku-Saraki ticket is that it is really tough because it technically requires you to stay in the upper Niger to select two candidates, one of whom may be a contender, while we hunt for someone to back up the person in the southern half. But we can’t put a Southwest and Southsouth man together because that would be impossible. Instead, you might say Atiku can be a candidate and then back him up with someone from the South, or Bukola can be a candidate and we back him up with someone from the South.
I never thought of it that way, but we can bring back Bukola Saraki and Peter Obi; and, as I previously stated, my view is both clear and ambiguous; there are 220 million people in this nation, and you can’t be shouting the names of only three persons for president of Nigeria. Our difficulties have reached a stage where we must look further into what they are delivering beyond rhetoric, because it appears that we are dissatisfied with any administration.
For political parties, there is no assumption that just by popularity they would win elections; elections are far more scientific, deeper, penetrating, and for anything they want to say, they have to contend with the fact that Tinubu knows whatever they think they know in politics; whatever they think they can do and scheme in politics, he can also because he’s a politician; and it would be the dumbest thing to think that the only thing they have against him is tribalism. As a result, determining who will be the candidate requires a considerably more detailed, thoughtful, meticulous, and in-depth examination of what citizens have to say.
Read Also: Yobe Wins N390m For Excellence In Primary Healthcare Leadership
Do the people want a southern president? Are they ready for another Fulani four years after the previous one? All of these concerns must be explored, and I don’t know how anyone can believe that they will win the general elections without conducting a thorough study and benchmarking. Some of us in the younger generation are becoming concerned; they should not believe that we cannot advise them which direction to go; if they want to be angry, we should all be angry together.
You recently offered some recommendations on how the PDP should deal with Wike and Atiku; do you expect the party to accept your proposals at the upcoming NEC?
I’m not sure; to be honest, one of the challenges with a democratic institution is that everyone can come together and present their views and ideas; my prayer and hope is that they can sit.
I do not agree that a recurring problem will be handled in a simplistic manner; I do not accept that in order to solve a problem, you must be blinded or deafened to what you consider to be one or the other side; and I do not accept that you can be so self-righteous or fraudulent as to see that neither is all good or bad. I normally tell people that if you want to construct long-lasting institutions, you must stay in the big middle because if you sift it down, you’ll see extremes here and there, which will make it impossible for people to operate.
However, being in the middle will need some flexibility, a desire to forgive certain issues, and a willingness to be practical about what will work. I believe those are very well-considered opinions; thankfully, for someone who has never left the party, has not stopped pushing, and believes that we Africans can build a democratic institution that will last, I believe I am correct, regardless of whether people want you to be their cheerleader or if they just want you to go out every day insulting the people with whom they disagree without checking to see what point they are making. I want to lead the party if they let me, and anyone who wants to lead must be willing to be fair and balanced.
Will the PDP BoT meeting with Wike bring harmony to the party?
I never anticipated that the persons calling themselves BoT, who have generated the crisis in the country and our democracy, would be able to address it with the same consciousness. In the first case, we will question them why they are singling out Wike in this situation. Why haven’t we heard them speak about other folks who are more upset? Is this the first, second, or third time they’ll visit him? Why haven’t we seen them have the confidence to rebuke him hard, given that the majority of them are older than him, or are they demonstrating that as the conscience of the party, they are unwilling or scared to warn him that some things are unacceptable?
We’ve designated them as the party’s conscience, so they should have an institutional memory of where the party came from, but I doubt they have any notion where it’s heading. I wish them well and hope they are able to come up with anything sensible, but let us promote any effort in any way that may help, even if I would have chosen a more direct approach to the entire issue.
What approach do you believe is most appropriate in addressing the PDP’s leadership crisis?
I believe an early convention is the most appropriate; with an early convention, they can begin primarily in the context of the excos, because I do not believe that focusing on the conversation of replacing just one person on the exco is a smart way to solve a problem that has persisted in this particular executive. So I would have preferred that they be able to say that we are giving time from this time to this time to prepare for an early convention that should take into account that you have reformed the party to some extent, listen to the citizens of the country who decide who gets the ticket, and draw a clear line where this type of thing will not be tolerated.
The reason I mentioned that is that the issue that led us to the 2023 challenge began in 2015, and it’s almost as if an invisible do-me-I-do-you in our native tongue is on the table. There are those who believe that some people left the party, causing the party to lose an election in 2015, and those who believe that 2019 should have been zoned to another part of the country, so what are they talking about? There are also those who believe that one man, the former Governor of Rivers State, is the problem, and I disagree.
I feel that our issues are a bit more systemic; I started noticing it in 2011 when I was the Director General of Jonathan-Sambo’s campaign. I saw clearly that as the person in charge of the presidential campaign in Ogun State, where the challenge of the party is, and I have been screaming on the needs for reforms, but ironically, what they have always assumed is that they should just manage to be a ticket bazaar platform so that anyone who gets their ticket will just
And, of course, they tried it in 2019, it didn’t work, we lost in 2015, it didn’t work in 2023, and I’m amazed at how they think the current conversation is a ticket, which I disagree with.
The current topic of discussion is how they can reform the party to the point where there is an introspection about what the party is all about now, and how they separate their own position and plans from their adversaries. And how can they assure that whatever they are calling their desire to earn a ticket or be a candidate is in line with Nigerians’ expectations?
Do you see the February NEC meeting as a trigger for resolving the PDP crisis?
It depends on what the NEC is supposed to answer; if the NEC is meant to be a test of who has the most votes to compel that viewpoint, even forcing that position would not solve the issue. If NEC becomes something that does not let the current quo to persist without a clear knowledge of everyone who comes to the table, the problem will not be solved. As I previously stated, what can address the situation is for us to recognize that the hurt has been too severe and be willing to say, “Let’s start over.”
For example, if you want to talk about Damagum, what about the others? Have you accepted all of the others’ lies without mentioning them, lest they believe I’m criticizing them for inefficiency? I do not accept it.
So, I accept that whatever the argument for and against Damagum is, it does not solve the challenges that I see; we need a people’s purpose executive when we are in opposition; we need to find new energy; we need to find something that will bring us upstream; and it does not include those who make difficult-to-prove statements, bothering with defamation and labeling simply because they have the opportunity and might.
People who make unprovable allegations are the best fools because they risk having the person they are accusing drag them to court to show cause, and when you make claims for which you have no evidence, they start calling the party comatose and using some of the most inappropriate adjectives to describe the party; I believe those people deserve harsher punishment.
Because, at the end of the day, what was expected of the PDP that it has not done? It has held about five or six primaries for the off-season elections, none of which have been contentious with candidates emerging; it has held ward elections, LG executives, and state government executives, the majority of which are not contentious; and, at the end of the day, the one sticking point does not reflect the totality of the matter. I believe Nigerians should be sympathetic to the PDP because democracy is noisy, with everyone attempting to advance their own interests and agenda.
And it is in this atmosphere that you hear all of these disputes about going to court, and in organizations where all of these things are not permitted, where when one person barks, everyone complies without complaint, that is not democratic.
As noisy as it may appear, this is evidence that the party is democratic, which is why some of its issues require a higher level of understanding. If someone feels aggrieved and is a member of a democratic party, he has the right to go to court, and if you have a case in court, can you now pretend that it isn’t?
If you do that, you risk having your case subjudiced; as you can see, it’s complicated. That’s why I believe they should put more effort into seeing if an early convention is possible so that we can go through the entire process of horse-trading, including some of the issues of where you want to zone to. Who is the ideal man to do this? Some of those issues will be resolved, and if they do so thoroughly and without using their positions to favor weak people whom they think to be their friends or those who will listen to them, everyone will benefit.
Is Wike’s grievance against the PDP motivated by a latent presidential agenda?
I’m not his spokesperson and do not have the authority to speak for him, but the truth is that Wike is not a pretentious individual. He is so unpretentious, which is part of the problem, that I don’t believe if Wike runs for president, he will hide; that is not who he is. At the very least, I’ve been in this party since he’s been here, and we’ve seen ourselves, we’ve had the benefit of many good positions in the party, and he’s not made of pretentious material to say he wants to be president when he doesn’t want to be or to be afraid to say when he does want to be president.
At least for the 2027 circle, I haven’t heard anything to such effect, and if he wants to be president, he would undoubtedly say so at some point; yet, accusing him of such would be uncharitable.
What I believe is going on is that everyone has a reaction to what they perceive to be a hurt or an injustice for the violation of their rights. And if individuals have the power to resist or react to a violation of their rights, you may not like it, but saying they don’t have the right would be a bit harsh. When you damage someone, you can only be certain of your own actions and cannot predict the behavior of the person who is injured.
When discussing this issue, people expect you to follow their narrow prism; however, the truth is that 2023 became complicated as a result of what we call the Delta Accord – Asaba Accord, in which governors of Southern extraction traveled to Asaba, hosted by former governor Okowa, and issued a communique claiming that Nigeria’s presidency should go to the South in the next election.
If you followed me or searched the internet, you would have noticed that I was on television the same day, screaming and shouting that the PDP should not be forced into zoning that will not benefit them; after all, for a political party to be able to run, it must run where it has an advantage and numbers.
And, as I previously stated, if it becomes necessary to zone South, they should simply state that they are going to the Southeast because, at the time, I stated that we had gone Southwest with Obasanjo and South-south with Jonathan, so no one should pretend to the PDP that we do not know where our liability is; and I stated that our liability in terms of Southern presidency is with the Southeast. I expressed it clearly, but people prefer to think they are smart, and in the end, they complicate things.
With so many challenges, can the PDP withstand Tinubu in 2027?
We must reinvent ourselves, and in doing so, we must go back to the drawing board, and some of the problems we are experiencing will simply disappear. Why are people scheming to insist on controlling the exco? Isn’t it because they believe that whoever owns the exco also owns the ticket? Atiku was not in the country when they were putting together the 2018 exco, but he won the ticket in 2019. Those who had the power to put the exco together – the Secondus exco – did not stop Atiku, who was not a part of that exco scheming.
I’m not sure why people don’t learn from their mistakes. I believe that for a political party, anyone who wants to be president must make himself presidential and appealing to the point where, by the time you get to any party, it’s almost done, as long as the party primaries and process are clean. When they open the forms, people will buy and cross the party. All those who believe they can remove or mock Atiku’s political capital by the time he returns to the primaries and defeats them, the case will be determined once and for all.
What are Tinubu’s prospects of winning the 2027 election?
There is a path for everybody who wants to win; if you want, I can show you the president’s path, which is straightforward. For the path of Tinubu’s victory, first count all states he has governors, especially in the North, then count all those who are first-term governors who would be looking for a second term; then count the ones who are second-term looking for successors; then discount it by asking yourself if there is anyone the opposition is bringing that can stress them to the point where they would subject their own election to the risk of losing their party’s election, which
The most significant setback for the PDP occurred in 2015, when several of our governors and senators lost their seats as a result of people claiming they wanted to prove a point; some of those who proved a point have yet to recover. What makes you think that the governors on the APC’s table would be so foolish as to risk losing their own seats to show that point?
Have you asked the younger elements – I can list them if you want – the NSA of this world, the Vice President of this world, the Zulum of this world, the El-Rufais of this world, and other younger elements who may be interested in becoming president after the turn of the South if they are willing to push their presidential date back more than the worst-case scenario by another four years?
So, what I’m trying to say is that anyone who says Bola Tinubu will not win the next election is a fool; things aren’t that simple. To defeat him, you must reconsider your strategy; sprinting helter-skelter will not suffice.
For example, by now you should be addressing platform difficulties, which is why we’re talking about the PDP. If you are going to do a merger, you must all come to the table now without making the assumption that someone will take the ticket, because no one will sit in a merger to’merge’ themselves for their own benefit if you have already decided who will get the ticket; these are all practical political issues.
while you look at the economy, did you help the impoverished Northerners while things were going well? Did you give the impoverished Nigerians money that you will now claim they will leave when the economy fails? You are unaware of this. The fact that you are stimulating tribalism in the country does not preclude others from stimulating anything else; people forget that he is the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces of this country, and he has plenty of opportunities in the coming year and a half.
What if the economy improves and people can see actual results? How will you fight him? What if, on election day, the issue turns out to be money? What if you are unable to mobilize as much money as the president? He can be beaten, but not by this song of misguided acts in which people who work hard to give us strength are humiliated, while others sit in their homes drinking Fura, believing that the president would fall into their laps.
