Peter Obi’s Northern Acceptance Still Uncertain Despite Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso’s Support Base — Muhammad, Ibrahim

A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already generating new talks ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

While none of the two politicians has emerged as the official presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the two are being tipped as the preferred candidates to contest the ruling party and other strong opposition parties at the next election cycle.

Political analysts say the talks are mainly motivated by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.

Obi garnered more than six million votes across the country on the platform of the Labour Party and won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, in the northern region, his victories were restricted to Plateau and Nasarawa states, as well as the FCT, where he had significant support.

Mr Kwankwaso, who ran under the banner of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and got close to one million votes further cementing his influence in the North-West.

The proposed alliance is now raising questions whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could be used by Obi to improve his acceptability across the region in 2027.

In an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad said the appeal of Obi in the North during the 2023 election was largely at the level of urban centres among the youth and among citizens looking for alternatives to the major political parties.

During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi showed some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria, especially in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters and citizens who are dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.

He said electoral trends showed that Obi’s strongest support base was outside the North.

“Electoral analyses put his northern vote share at about 14 per cent against over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” Muhammad said.

He said while an alliance with Kwankwaso could boost Obi’s chances in Kano and some parts of the North-West, it may not affect the overall regional voting pattern significantly.

He added that a possible alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could make Obi more competitive, especially in Kano with the Kwankwasiyya movement, but this does not automatically translate into mass support in the north.

He claimed that throughout much of the North-West, voting behaviour is still influenced by religion, regional identity, party loyalty over time and local politics.

“So, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, and it is analytically wrong to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the larger North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.

Also commenting on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, said Obi has been able to gain more visibility among the northern youths than at the last election.

“I think Peter Obi has attained a certain level of popularity in some parts of northern Nigeria, especially among the young people, urban voters, Christians of the North-Central region and those Nigerians who are fed up,” Ibrahim said.

But he said Obi remains under strong political constraints in the core North-West states, where entrenched political structures still rule.

His popularity in the core North-West, especially in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara, still remains limited relative to well-established northern political figures like Atiku Abubakar,” he added.

But even with those limitations, a merger between both politicians could still form a stronger opposition platform than what was present in the 2023 election, Ibrahim said.

That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a significant difference compared to 2023,” he stated.

He said that any serious challenge in 2027 would be based on more than popularity or online support.

“They require strong grassroots mobilization, party unity, trusted local structures, balancing of religious and ethnic interests, and the ability to protect votes across polling units. “Even if Obi and Kwankwaso team up, it will still be a huge task to convert the public energy into a national electoral win,” Ibrahim said.

As coalition talks continue, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately depend on whether both politicians can transform their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement capable of competing across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.