The African Democratic Congress, or ADC, is having a difficult time as political activities progressively pick up steam in anticipation of the national elections in 2027.
Once hailed by some political analysts as a possible gathering point for disgruntled blocs, the ADC is facing both internal and external challenges.
Arrests and election disappointment make the path to 2027 seem more difficult.
Setbacks in the FCT election
According to reports, the recent elections for the FCT area council revealed systemic flaws in the ADC’s political apparatus. The party was unable to convert its prominence into electoral successes across important councils, despite loud campaigns and noticeable media involvement.
According to reports, the FCT failure could be a warning sign for a party looking to center a larger opposition movement.
Although the ADC made an effort to establish itself as a viable rival to the ruling parties, analysts think that its grassroots organizing was unsuccessful.
The FCT council elections provided the ADC with a chance to assess its preparedness for 2027, according to some political observers.
But the result sparked questions about its ability to form coalitions, voter penetration, and organizational depth.
Veteran writer and former presidential adviser Dr. Reuben Abati commented on the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) elections, stating that the ADC was unable to convert its campaign efforts into electoral success in the FCT area council elections.
Speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show on Monday, Abati made the comments.
He noted that political parties need to start reevaluating their tactics in front of upcoming elections, saying that the results of the Abuja elections demonstrated that the contests had been mostly determined.
“We simply hope that everyone involved—including the ADC, who held demonstrations in Abuja but received no results—will take note of this and plan forward.
“We are unable to predict what that will mean in the future,” Abati stated.
Additionally, it was stated that Chidi Odinkalu, the former chairman of the National Human Rights Commission, criticized opposition political parties and leaders for their disorganized and ineffectual management of the FCT elections.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Monday, Odinkalu claimed that the opposition had not shown leadership at a crucial juncture.
The current political atmosphere, according to Odinkalu, shows a lack of seriousness among the parties supposed to act as checks on the ruling government. He called the opposition “an utter disgrace.”
It’s challenging to discuss Nigeria’s political opposition’s incompetence. They don’t take things seriously.
According to Odinkalu, “I think anybody who looks at the system has got to say that there is absolutely no opposition at the moment.”
El-Rufai’s detention by the DSS, EFCC, and ICPC
Following the arrest and detention of Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, by anti-corruption and security agencies such as the Department of State Services (DSS), the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) last week, the political atmosphere in the nation became more heated.
Opposition voices have characterized the move as politically tinged, despite the ruling All Progressives Congress’s insistence that such moves are a part of ongoing investigations and institutional responsibilities.
The timing, according to some advocates, is problematic, particularly when realignments and alignments become more intense before 2027.
El-Rufai is regarded by many as one of the important ADC leaders who can put pressure on President Bola Tinubu’s reelection, despite his intense controversy.
Since his arrest, the party has become uneasy.According to reports, former vice president Atiku Abubakar said on Tuesday that Nasir El-Rufai’s family, friends, and allies are deeply concerned about his health and well-being.
Following reports that El-Rufai had bled through the nose over the weekend, Atiku issued a warning to the government.
Atiku, however, claimed that the Federal Government owes Nigerians explanation in a statement released through X on Tuesday.
Atiku asserts that the government is obligated by the constitution to ensure El-Rufai’s safety, dignity, access to healthcare, and the presence of his family and legal counsel.
“It is extremely concerning and unacceptable in a democracy that he reportedly had a nosebleed while family members were allegedly denied access.”
The legal and compassionate course of action is to immediately grant him bail if the authorities are unable to ensure his health and basic rights. This government will be held responsible for El-Rufai’s fate.
In the meantime, it was remembered that the EFCC had also apprehended and arrested Abubakar Malami, a chieftain of the ADC and former Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), a few weeks prior.
The Enugu government’s N150 million political campaign advertising fee
The Enugu State Structures for Signage and Advertisement Agency (ENSSAA) on Monday imposed a necessary N150 million permission charge for political campaign advertising ahead of the 2026 and 2027 elections, a move that has sparked much debate.
Introduced during Governor Peter Mbah’s administration, the policy has been defended as a regulatory action meant to uphold law and order and guarantee adherence to state advertising regulations.
Opposition parties contend that the levy disproportionately impacts smaller parties like the ADC and see it as exorbitant.
According to reports, the ADC’s Enugu State chapter protested the required sum.
The campaign advertising permission charge was deemed illegal, unconstitutional, and undemocratic by the party.
In order to prevent opposition parties from running in the upcoming elections in Enugu State, the ruling APC was accused by the ADC of creating the fee.
The opposition party accused the state administration of attempting to usurp the federal government’s authority by enforcing the “illegal” advertising permission fee, in complete violation of the Nigerian Constitution, in a press release signed by Paul Anigbogu on behalf of the Enugu ADC Media Team.
A portion of the statement said, “If the state government does not remove the unlawful and unconstitutional financial barrier put in the way of political parties and candidates running for local government elections and general elections in Enugu State, we completely reject this fee and will not hesitate to challenge it in court.”
Peter Obi’s alleged assassination attempt
Reports of a purported murder attempt on former presidential candidate Mr. Peter Obi on Tuesday further heightened tensions.
The Obidient Movement Worldwide’s National Coordinator, Dr. Yunusa Tanko, confirmed the attack in a statement sent from Abuja.
According to Tanko, the event happened soon after senior attorney Olumide Akpata officially joined the ADC.
He claimed that armed men followed the group straight from the ADC Secretariat to Chief Odigie-Oyegun’s private home, where they opened fire on the gate and many cars parked inside the yard.
“In Benin, Edo State, Peter Obi and the ADC leadership are being besieged and attacked.
In what looks to be a successful assassination attempt on our lives, they fired at the gate and wrecked multiple vehicles. “Democracy is in jeopardy,” Tanko wrote.
Many party supporters turned to social media shortly after the incident was made public, calling the development alarming and indicative of growing political animosity.
According to reports, Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate who is currently in the ADC, is still one of the most recognizable faces of the movement opposing the current government. His impressive election performance and the ensuing legal battle kept him at the forefront of Nigerian opposition politics.
The recently signed Electoral Act of 2026
The recently enacted 2026 Electoral Act, which established both manual and electronic transmission of election results, adds another level of complexity to the developing drama.
The act’s provision allowing for the manual transmission of election results, according to opposition figures, may unintentionally encourage result tampering and manipulation.
The party called the President’s ratification of the amendment a blow to the nation’s ability to hold legitimate elections in a statement released on Thursday and signed by Bolaji Abdullahi, its National Publicity Secretary.
The opposition party cautioned that the amendment might erode public trust in upcoming elections because it creates uncertainty and gives undue discretion in the compilation and dissemination of election results.
The ADC also voiced worry that if there are no clear assurances regarding electronic transparency, people may feel pressured to stay at polling places in order to protect their ballots, which could increase tension during elections.
“In response to President Bola Tinubu’s actions on Wednesday, February 18, the ADC, a duly constituted political party in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, affirms in the strongest and clearest terms possible that we are ready, willing, and prepared to defend the sanctity of Nigeria’s democracy using every constitutional and lawful means available to us.
The party declared, “We will mobilize Nigerians toward unity in defense of their constitutional rights, toward lawful participation, and toward vigilance.”
Analyst: Nigeria’s opposition is not well-coordinated
According to Nduka Odo, a public affairs analyst and communication specialist at Peaceland University in Enugu, Nigeria does not yet have a well-organized and cohesive opposition that could take on the ruling APC before the next elections in 2027.
Odo made the claim in an interview on Tuesday, claiming that the nation’s current political developments supported his previous claim that there was no strong opposition.
He asserts that dispersed voices cannot be characterized as political opposition, pointing out that force, momentum, and coordination are necessary for effective resistance.
Citing the ADC’s performance in the most recent Abuja elections as proof that the party had not yet fully established itself as a credible alternative, he called the party a “sketch” of what an opposition party ought to be.
According to Odo, the results of the Abuja elections should act as a caution to the ADC to reorganize prior to 2027.
The party’s reaction to the controversial electoral act modification bill’s passage was also criticized by the analyst, who claimed that the ADC did not take significant action.
Odo accused the ruling party of trying to rig the 2027 elections, saying that if the APC had been in opposition, it would have organized demonstrations at the National Assembly and taken the matter to global media outlets like CNN and the BBC.
He went on to say that the leaders of the ADC don’t seem to be unified or truly devoted to creating a powerful opposition platform, and that the group appears to be split and lacking in internal coherence.
“Recent activities in the country have proven what I’ve said somewhere else,” stated Odo. Nigeria currently has no opposition.
“Political opposition does not consist of lone voices. People like Peter Obi are examples of that today. An opposition requires coordination, force, and momentum.
“At the moment, ADC is merely a sketch of what an opposition ought to be. The recent elections in Abuja demonstrated this. It served as an early warning for ADC to complete its acts before to 2027.
The ADC still has a long way to go, as seen by the fact that it accomplished nothing significant when parliamentarians passed the blatantly contentious election act modification. We all watched as deputy speaker Benjamin Kalu disregarded calls for order from the house.
He continued despite the members’ requests to know what was included in the measure. The House of Representatives would have been under siege if the APC had been in the opposition.
They would continue to demonstrate against the election act’s passage. On CNN and the BBC, they would describe how the ruling party has developed a strategy to rig the 2027 election.
However, none of that is being done by ADC. ADC doesn’t seem to have come together as a cohesive entity. They don’t appear to know what they can agree upon yet. It appears that the leaders don’t trust one another. They all appear to be in and out of sync.
And APC is aware of this. The PDP would expire before the 2027 election, I once said. It’s nearly finished. The only thing that shocks me is that LP didn’t really make it through the Lamidi Apapa epidemic.
“ADC appears to be in for a similar plague. And I witnessed the ruling party’s involvement in LP’s illness. Additionally, I can see their fingers in ADC’s jaundiced stance.
“Our fledgling democracy is at risk from the ruling party’s ongoing suppression of the opposition, regardless of the tactics used. Every elected official cannot be forced to join the prevailing party.
“It is ridiculous and anti-democratic for members of the legislature, the main branch of government tasked with monitoring the executive branch’s excesses, to sing the president’s sycophantic anthem on the floor of legislation instead of the national anthem.
“Oppositionism is an ideal that transcends the pursuit of power.” For Nigerian governance to regain sanity, organized opposition is required.
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